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本帖最后由 不二如是 于 2017-12-18 07:56 编辑
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在2017年即将结束的时候，《福布斯》预测了未来改变世界的9个科技趋势。
Trend 1: The increasing datafication of our lives
日常生活会越来越数据化
From chatting to friends in a messaging app or buying a coffee, to tapping in and out with an Oyster card or streaming music, today almost everything we do leaves a trail of data breadcrumbs. And this increasing datafication of our world has led to an unprecedented explosion in data.
Just in the average minute, Facebook receives 900,000 logins, more than 450,000 Tweets are posted, and 156 million emails and 15 million texts are sent.With numbers like that, it’s no wonder we’re essentially doubling the amount of data created in the world roughly every two years.
如今不管是购物、社交，还是在网上听音乐，我们做的每件事情几乎都会留下数据。
这让我们迎来了前所未有的数据爆炸，世界上创造的数据量大约每两年就会增加一倍。
Trend 2: The Internet of Things (IoT) and how everyday devices are becoming more ‘smart’
物联网和日常设备更加“智能”
The IoT – which encompasses smart, connected products like smart phones and smart watches –is a major contributing factor in this exponential increase in data. That’s because all these smart devices are constantly gathering data, connecting to other devices and sharing that data – all without human intervention (your Fitbit synching data to your phone, for instance).
Pretty much anything can be made smart these days. Our cars are becoming increasingly connected; by 2020, a quarter of a billion cars will be hooked up to the Internet. For our homes, there are obvious smart products like TVs,and less obvious ones, like yoga mats that trackyour Downward Dog. And, of course, many of us have voice-enabled personal assistants like Alexa – another example of an IoT device.
That’s already a lot of devices, but the IoT is just getting started. IHS has predicted there’ll be 75 billion connected devices by 2020.
物联网是推动数据迅速增长的重要因素，因为所有的智能设备都在不断收集数据、分享数据。
不过，物联网领域才刚刚起步，有研究公司预计，到2020年，联网设备将达到750亿部。
Trend 3: Exponential growth in computing power is fueling massive tech advances
计算能力的指数级增长将推动重大技术进步的产生
None of this incredible growth in data, nor the billions of IoT devices available,would be possible without the enormous leaps in computing power that we’ve made. Between 1975 and 2015, computing power doubled at a rate of every two years, before slowing to the current rate of approximately every two and a half years.
But we’re reaching the limits of what traditional computing power can handle. Thankfully, on the horizon, we have quantum computing. Probably the most significant transformation of computing power ever, quantum computing will see computers become millions of times faster than they are right now.Tech leaders are in a race to launch the first commercially viable quantum computer, capable of solving problems that today’s computers can’t handle. Capable, even, of solving problems that we can’t even imagine yet.
从1975年至2015年，计算性能以每两年增加一倍的速度在增长。
现在，计算性能的增速放缓到了每两年半增加一倍
Trend 4: The incredible rise of artificial intelligence (AI)
人工智能快速兴起
Computers are now able to learn in much the same way as we humans do, and this leap in AI capabilities has been made possible by the massive increases in data and computing power. It’s the incredible explosion in data that has allowed AI to advance so quickly over the last couple of years; the more data an AI system has, the quicker it can learn and the more accurate it becomes.
This huge step forward in AI mean computers can now undertake more and more human tasks. In fact, it’s AI that allows computers to see (e.g. facial recognition software), read (e.g. analyzing social media messages), listen (e.g. Alexa standing by to answer your every command), speak (e.g. Alexa being able to answer you) and gauge our emotions (e.g. affective computing).
这一点和前面几点都有关系，数据越多，人工智能学习的速度就越快，就会变得更准确。
Trend 5: The unstoppable freight train that is automation
不可阻挡的自动化浪潮
The more intelligent machines become, the more they can do for us. That means even more processes, decisions, functions and systems can be automated and carried out by algorithms or robots.
Eventually, a wide range of industries and jobs will be impacted by automation. However, for now, the first wave of jobs that machines are taking can be categorized using the four Ds: dull, dirty, dangerous and dear. This means humans will no longer be needed to do the jobs that machines can do faster, safer, cheaper and more accurately.
Beyond the four Ds, machines, robots and algorithms will replace – oraugment – many human jobs, including professional jobs in fields like law or accounting. From truck drivers to bricklayers to doctors, the list of jobs that are likely to be affected by automation is surprising. One estimate reckons that 47 percent of US jobs are at risk of automation.
由于机器越来越智能，能做的事情就越多，所以有些行业的自动化不可避免。
对于机器能够做得更快、更安全、成本更低以及更准确的工作，人类不需要再做了
Trend 6: 3D printing opens up amazing opportunities for manufacturers (and others)
3D打印给制造业带来了机遇
Related to increasing automation, the invention of 3D printing is disrupting manufacturing, and other industries, in many positive ways. In traditional (subtractive) manufacturing, objects are cut or hollowed out of material, such as metal, using something like a cutting tool. But in 3D printing (also known as additive manufacturing), the object is created by laying down, or adding, layers of material. The materials used in 3D printing can be pretty much anything: plastic, metal, concrete, liquid, powder, even chocolate or human tissue!
With 3D printing, far more complex shapes can be created than in traditional manufacturing – and using less material, too. It also allows for much greater customization of products, without worrying about economies of scale.
传统的制造需要用一些工具对材料进行切割或挖空。
但是通过3D打印，只要把材料平铺好，然后一层一层地添加材料，就能制造出产品。
Trend 7: We’re interacting with technology in very different ways
技术互动方式多元化
The way we interact with technology has changed dramatically in recent years – and is still changing. Thanks to smart phones and tablets, we can carry out a whole range of tasks on the move simply by touching a screen. Mobile web usage has increased to the point where, in 2016, it overtook web usage through traditional computers. Google has also confirmed that searches on mobile devices now outstrip desktop searches.
We’re also talking to our devices, using voice searches via Siri and the like. Estimates suggest that, by 2020, 50 percent of all searches will be voice searches, and around 30 percent will involve no screen whatsoever. As a result, all kinds of businesses are gradually integrating their products with the likes of Siri, Alexa and Google Assistant. For example, Alexa is being integrated into BMWs from 2018.
Virtual reality and augmented reality represent the next huge leap in interface innovation, transforming how businesses interact with customers.
近几年我们和技术的互动方式已经发生了很大的变化，比如智能手机和移动互联网给我们带来的改变。
未来虚拟现实和增强现实等技术，会是互动界面创新的下一个重大飞跃，将改变企业和客户的互动。
Trend 8: Blockchains: An invention that could change our world
区块链可能是一个会改变世界的发明
Blockchain technology is a very practical solution to the problem of storing, authenticating and protecting data. Think of a blockchain as a decentralized, extremely secure database. Or, to get slightly more technical, it’s a distributed, peer-to-peer ledger of records. While nothing is ever totally ‘hack-proof’, blockchain represents a huge leap forward compared to our current data security technology as, unlike a centralized database, there’s no one single point of failure.
The records in a blockchain are called ‘blocks’ and every block is connected to the previous block (hence, ‘block’ and ‘chain’). The whole chain is self-managed, which means there’s no one person or organization in charge of the entire chain. If that sounds familiar, it might be because the virtual currency Bitcoin functions on blockchain technology.
Financial services, insurance and healthcare are just some of the sectors where blockchains are likely to be heavily adopted. In fact, 90 percent of major European and North American banks are exploring blockchain solutions.
区块链技术可以被想象成一个去中心化的、超级安全的数据库。
虽然区块链无法保证百分之百的安全性，但是和当前的数据安全技术相比，区块链是一个巨大飞跃。
和集中式数据库不同的是，区块链不会出现单点故障。
Trend 9: Platforms are the way forward for businesses
企业的平台化发展
A platform is essentially a network (digital or physical) that creates value for participants by facilitating connections and exchanges between people for services, products or information. The platform is rarely the actual service provider; instead, it acts as a facilitator for the crowd, making interactions possible, easy, and safe for participants.
Platforms have given rise to businesses like Airbnb, Uber and Amazon, and are also the foundation of what Facebook and Twitter do. However, platforms offer growth opportunities across all kinds of businesses, industries and sectors – not just tech companies. Even long-running businesses with more traditional business models, like Ford, are beginning to develop platform strategies.
Airbnb、优步、亚马逊等公司越来越平台化。
一个平台实际上就是一个网络，平台的价值，在于促进人们在服务、产品或者信息之间的联系和交流。
平台很少是实际的服务提供商。相反，它是人们之间的一个促进者，让参与者之间彼此联系，让联系更简单、更安全。
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